Modelling Resilience and Adaptation to Abrupt Climate Changes in the Belgian Bronze Age: Insights from a High-Resolution Multiproxy Study

During the Belgian Bronze Age two major Rapid Climate Change (RCC) events occured around 4.2 and 3.2 ka. Yet, the impacts of these episodes on environments and human communities in northwestern Europe remain insufficiently understood. This contribution presents results from the Learning from the Past (LEAP) project, which examines how abrupt climate shifts influenced ecosystems, mobility patterns, and population dynamics in pre- and early-complex societies during the Middle to Late Holocene in the Meuse basin of Belgium. Using a high-resolution, multiproxy approach, LEAP integrates palaeoclimate data (C and O isotopes, and trace elements from speleothems), palaeoenvironmental evidence (pollen and microcharcoal from raised peat bogs), and archaeological datasets including palaeomobility indicators (O and Sr isotopes from human remains) and palaeodemographic proxies (SPDs and kernel density estimates). By statistically modelling and correlating these high-resolution archaeological, environmental, and climatic records, as well as comparative data from neighbouring regions, the project evaluates the synchronicity of environmental stressors and societal responses. Leads- or lag-responses are explored, as well as handling of unequal sampling intervals, and determining the significance of signals and potential causality. Preliminary results point to shifts in settlement density, funerary practices, population size, and mobility that coincide with periods of climatic fluctuation and environmental change. These patterns shed light on the resilience and adaptive capacities of Belgian Bronze Age communities facing short-lived environmental changes.