Dynamical downscaling of extreme extratropical cyclones for storm surge analysis in the eastern Baltic Sea under future climate scenarios

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are low-pressure systems that occur in the mid- to high latitudes of both hemispheres. They typically form through cyclogenesis over the ocean near upper-tropospheric jet streams, and less frequently through transition from other storm types. As high-impact weather events, they are often associated with extreme winds, heavy precipitation, and storm surges, and can result in loss of life and extensive property damage. Consequently, any change in their activity (e.g., due to global warming) may have profound impacts on socio-economic systems and human well-being.In this study, we tracked and identified extreme ETCs during the extended winter season (ONDJFM) using sea level pressure (SLP) tracking (tracks with minimum SLP