Assessing the risk of a fire-driven tipping point in the Congo Basin 

Fires have long played an important role in social-ecological and agricultural systems across the tropics, but until the early 1990s, these fires rarely posed a threat to surrounding forests. Since then, the size, intensity, and frequency of fires in tropical forests in the Amazon and South East Asia have increased, particularly during periods of drought. This increase in fire activity is fueled by a combination of changing climate conditions and land-use practices and poses a significant threat to biodiversity and carbon storage. In the Congo Basin, home to Earth’s second-largest tropical forest and the largest tropical peatland complex, fire activity has increased in recent decades according to the satellite record. However, current fire regimes and drivers, as well as the long-term response of Congo Basin forests to fire, remain poorly understood. This is in part due to limitations the of current satellite-based datasets to detect fire in the region. We 1) synthesize what is known about fire in the Congo Basin, 2) examine trends in existing remotely sensing fire datasets, 3) discuss difficulties detecting fire in the Congo Basin to highlight why current methods are likely under-detecting fire, 4) explore possible social-ecological drivers of fire by highlighting changes in forest disturbances and climate, and 5) report research needs to advance understanding of changing fire dynamics in the Congo Basin. This work highlights a key knowledge gap and provides a roadmap for improving the ability to detect and monitor fire in the Congo Basin, to improve understanding of tropical carbon flux dynamics, and support local fire adaptation and management plans for communities across the Congo Basin.