Evaluating NOAA’s Unified Forecast System with TEMPO Trace Gas and Aerosol Products

The Unified Forecast System with Chemistry (UFS-Chem) model is currently being developed at NOAA to provide research-to-operations capability for atmospheric composition applications. Using UFS-Chem, we perform modeling simulations during the Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) 2023 airborne field campaign. During the campaign, Canadian wildfire smoke significantly degraded air quality in the Upper Midwest and Northeast US, including high ozone anomalies. Simulations are at the global scale, and include full gas-chemistry (from the GFDL AM4.1 model) connected with GOCART aerosols at relatively coarse resolution (1 degree vs 1 degree). Wildfire emissions are from the Blended Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product (GBBEPx), which is fire radiative power (FRP) based, and modified with emission coefficients constrained to FIREX-AQ field campaign observations. We evaluate the advection and transport of smoke with retrievals from the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite instrument, including for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), aerosol optical depth (AOD), and aerosol layer height (ALH). TEMPO satellite operators are utilized from and/or developed for the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI). We also evaluate NO2/HCHO and NO2/AOD as a diagnostic for flaming versus smoldering emissions, a key determinant in the chemical speciation of smoke. Preliminary evaluation of UFS-Chem with TEMPO NO2 suggests that the primary emissions of flaming smoke may be off between oxidized (e.g., NOx) and reduced nitrogen species (e.g., NH3). Lastly, we also perform higher-resolution global simulations (25 km x 25 km) of the soon to be operationally implemented Global Chemistry and Aerosol Forecast System (GCAFS) version 1. These simulations do not include gas-phase chemistry, and are used to assess the impact of spatial-resolution on plume-rise and advection of smoke with TEMPO aerosol products. In addition to geostationary satellite products, evaluations are made with ground-based observations, and airborne AEROMMA measurements to assess the skill of UFS-Chem and GCAFS.