Prioritization of risk reduction strategies by multi-criteria decision analysis: a multi-hazard approach

Effective risk management in multi-hazard contexts represents a key focus of the Italian RETURN project (Multi-risk science for resilient communities under a changing climate). Within this framework, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach has been developed to support the prioritization of risk reduction strategies. The proposed framework integrates three complementary dimensions of the problem at stake: (i) the optimization of risk reduction in complex multi-hazard settings, accounting for all relevant dimensions of risk (i.e., impacts on individual well-being, the built environment, public services, the natural environment, communities, business activities, and the financial system); (ii) the assessment of the economic, social, and environmental sustainability of proposed actions under current and future climate change conditions; and (iii) the systematic integration of stakeholders’ values, preferences, and objectives into the decision-making process. To achieve these goals, the framework combines multiple methodologies, including multi-hazard impact modelling for the definition of ex-ante and ex-post risk scenarios, expert-based assessments to evaluate long-term sustainability, and participatory processes to ensure effective stakeholder engagement. The MCDA framework provides a valuable decision-support tool for informed, transparent, and inclusive decision-making, aligned with efforts to enhance community resilience and sustainability, and is particularly relevant for policymakers, practitioners, and civil protection agencies.