Determining the correlates of extinction for marine invertebrates

Identifying the drivers of variation in extinction intensity and selectivity across Earth’s history is essential for explaining past biodiversity patterns and for predicting biological responses to environmental change. Here we investigate the role of coastline geometry and paleogeographic boundary conditions in shaping extinction risk for taxa over the past 540 million years. Paleogeography significantly influenced extinction risk for shallow-marine-restricted invertebrates over the Phanerozoic. Taxa with dispersal pathways that were disproportionately long compared to the latitudinal range traversed, as seen along east–west–oriented coastlines, islands, or inland seaways, consistently showed higher extinction risk compared to taxa whose dispersal pathways allowed more direct movement across latitudes. This information can be leveraged to study how marine invertebrates are responding to present-day climate change. We find evidence of differential dynamics for shallow marine invertebrates today that is dependent on geographic context.