Advancing Multi-Risk Early Warning in Fragile Contexts: Methodological Insights from Sudan

Sudan is increasingly exposed to compound risks from floods and droughts, amplified by conflict, climate variability, fragile infrastructures, and weakened institutional capacities. The APIS (Early Warning and Civil Protection for Floods and Droughts in Sudan) project has developed and tested a set of methodologies to strengthen multi-hazard risk assessment and early warning, tailored to contexts marked by fragility and data scarcity. At the core of this approach is the enhancement of the national early warning system through decision support tools for rain and flood forecasting and drought monitoring, strengthened by the effective use of information provided in operational bulletins disseminated through established procedures. The development of Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) methodologies, built upon regional-level research and operational experiences, ensured the transfer and contextualization of established practices to the Sudanese domain. Complementing this framework, a high-resolution forecasting chain based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was operationalized, delivering 3 km spatial resolution and 72-hour lead times for key weather variables to support IBF applications and assessing populations potentially affected by severe weather, including extreme rainfall, strong winds, and heatwaves. This system supports IBF applications and the assessment of populations potentially affected by severe weather, including extreme rainfall, strong winds, and heatwaves. The system was further reinforced through the rehabilitation and integration of meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations, enhancing the reliability of real-time observations. A national drought monitoring framework was also established to detect emerging stress conditions and assess related impacts on priority assets. By combining hazard simulations with exposure and vulnerability information, the methodologies demonstrated consistency in generating tailored, real-time early warning products for disaster management authorities and humanitarian partners. A pivotal achievement included the establishment of a joint inter-sectoral operations room, which laid the foundation for sustained collaboration among relevant institutions. This forum fostered a sequential and multi-stakeholder forecasting process, with each member contributing their expertise, significantly enhancing the final product and ensuring its operational viability. Current and future efforts will focus on tailoring impact-based forecasting products for distinct user groups by translating decision-maker–oriented outputs into simplified, community-accessible formats using clear language and intuitive icons to strengthen last-mile early-warning engagement. Case studies from 2024 and 2025 illustrate the effectiveness of this approach, where daily monitoring and forecasting facilitated coordination and reduced the impacts of significant flood events. The Sudan experience underscores the value of regional collaboration in sustaining critical services and embedding multi-risk approaches into both scientific practice and governance frameworks for disaster risk reduction in humanitarian settings.