Integrating Modelling and Stakeholder Engagement to Assess Forest Management Pathways for Climate

Forests play a crucial role in climate change mitigation by acting as long-term carbon sinks while simultaneously delivering a wide range of ecosystem services and socio-economic benefits. However, maximizing forest-based mitigation demands management strategies that explicitly integrate ecological resilience, carbon dynamics, and socio-economic performance across diverse pedoclimatic and governance contexts. This study contributes to the current debate by assessing the socio-economic implications of forest management scenarios aimed at enhancing carbon sequestration and climate resilience across a range of European forest landscapes. In this context we combine internationally recognised sustainability criteria (FOREST EUROPE), with OptFor-EU project outcomes such as: Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators, scenario-based modelling and semi-structured interviews with 56 forest managers. The latter are used to evaluate how alternative forest management pathways influence carbon stocks, ecosystem services, and socio-economic outcomes. The analysis integrates multi-disciplinary inputs, including forest growth and carbon modelling, socio-economic indicators, and Business Model Canvas approaches, within a co-designed Decision Support System developed by OptFor-EU research team in close collaboration with forest managers and local stakeholders. Results from 56 interviews carried out across the eight case studies (Norway, Lithuania, Austria, Germany, Romania, Spain, Italy) highlight that transitions from business-as-usual practices towards climate-smart and closer-to-nature silviculture can significantly improve carbon retention, diversify revenue streams (e.g. timber, payments for ecosystem services), and strengthen rural employment and social acceptance. At the same time, the findings underline key challenges regarding data availability for evidence-based decision-making, ownership fragmentation, and the monetisation of ecosystem services, particularly under increasing climate-related disturbances such as heat, droughts, storms, pests and wildfires increasingly frequent in Europe. Overall, the study demonstrates that forest-based mitigation actions are most effective when ecological and socio-economic dimensions are jointly addressed through integrated modelling, stakeholders’ co-creation, and tailored decision-support tools. These insights support evidence-based forest policies and management strategies that enhance climate mitigation while safeguarding biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and socio-economic viability. Acknowledgements This research received funds from the project “OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low-carbon, climate resilient future in Europe (OptFor-EU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe programme, under Grant agreement no101060554.