Anticipatory action as a climate adaptation tool: an analysis of current practice, obstacles and opportunities

Anticipatory Action is increasingly put forward as a key approach to managing the emerging risks of climate change, by using forecasts to deliver vital resources to communities before disaster strikes. However, with climate change driving unprecedented weather extremes, how are anticipatory triggers, actions and implementation plans being designed to effectively prepare for and manage changing and emerging risks?In this research we identify examples of existing good practice, potential obstacles to progress, and ways in which weather and climate science can be better harnessed to strengthen anticipatory action as a climate adaptation tool. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining literature reviews, key informant interviews and stakeholder workshops. We find that while anticipatory action programming is usually informed by analysis of past events, there are emerging examples of good practice. These include addressing changing patterns of risk, undertaking scenario planning and simulation exercises, adapting triggers to account for upward trends in event frequency, and working to address the dangers of emerging risks such as heat waves and glacial lake outburst floods. However, in complex settings, for example in 'temporary' displacement camps, there is a need for longer-term thinking supported by integrated anticipatory action and resilience programming.