Insurance Subrogation and Climate Accountability: New Opportunities for Attribution Science? 

Climate-related losses to insured assets are rising rapidly, intensifying pressure on insurers to reconsider traditional approaches to risk management and recovery. One possible approach is subrogation, whereby insurers seek to recover losses from third parties alleged to have contributed to the loss, raising the possibility of claims by insurance companies against major greenhouse gas emitters. At the same time, attribution science is playing an increasingly visible role in both climate litigation and insurance practice, yet its relevance for subrogation remains largely unexplored.This paper examines insurance subrogation as a potential, though structurally complex, pathway for climate accountability. Drawing from research on the use of attribution science in climate litigation, we examine how attribution could be used in subrogation actions, and what a subrogation claim may look like in practice. We also consider the legal, evidentiary, institutional and systemic constraints that may limit these claims. This paper invites consideration of how attribution science may shape claims and open new pathways for accountability.