Strengthening Kenya’s Climate and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (CHVA) through Quantitative Heat and Air Pollution Modelling 

Kenya faces increasing climate related health risks driven by rising temperatures, worsening air quality, and rapid socio environmental change. A quantitative Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment is urgently needed to inform evidence based National Health Adaptation Plans and subsequent investment cases. This contribution presents a complementary role for applied research to strengthen Kenya’s Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, with a specific focus on heat stress and air pollution as two of the most climate sensitive health outcomes. Building on the World Health Organization Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment framework, we demonstrate how high-resolution quantitative exposure modelling can support all stages of the assessment process. Using integrated atmospheric and health impact models, we assess population exposure to heat stress and air pollution across past, present, and future climate conditions. Furthermore, the effect of mitigation measures, such as shifting work hours, is assessed. Heat stress is quantified using the wet bulb globe temperature framework, incorporating meteorological drivers such as temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation, as well as individual vulnerability factors including activity level and demographic characteristics. Air pollution exposure focuses on fine particulate matter, ozone, and nitrogen oxides, which represent the dominant air quality related health risks in Kenya. By accounting for co-exposure to heat stress and air pollution, the modelling framework captures compounded health risks and supports integrated climate, air quality, and public health policy assessment. A key added value of the modelling approach is source attribution, enabling air pollution exposure to be linked to both emission sector and geographic origin. This provides direct action perspectives for policy design and allows climate mitigation measures to be evaluated for their associated health co-benefits. Quantitative relationships between environmental exposures and health endpoints, including respiratory and non-communicable diseases, are applied in alignment with Global Burden of Disease methodologies. The contribution further outlines pathways for integrating satellite observations, sensor-based measurements, and sustained monitoring systems to support long term evaluation of adaptation measures. By embedding advanced quantitative methods within an existing national assessment framework, this work highlights how targeted international collaboration can enhance African leadership in climate health adaptation, strengthen decision relevant evidence, and support sustainable capacity development in line with global policy frameworks.