Social aspects of assessing the effectiveness of gross‑contract transportation for commuter bus routes in urban agglomerations

Background. This article examines the social transition to gross-contract transportation for commuter bus routes in large metropolitan areas such as Krasnodar. It is shown that the key factors for commuter passengers include inconvenience, regularity, and accessibility of transport during peak hours. Based on the calculations for route 186b (Lazurny settlement – city center), a detailed passenger flow analysis was conducted, identifying its high unevenness (coefficient 2.75), and calculating key performance indicators. It was established that random issues such as schedule failures and insufficient comfort can be addressed through the use of a gross contract, which sets strict requirements for rolling stock and service frequency. The objective of this study is to assess social effectiveness and justify the transition to gross contracts using suburban bus routes in Krasnodar's metropolitan areas as an example. The study aims to identify key social requirements for passengers and evaluate gross models of transport service quality. Methodology. Systems analysis, naturalistic research and instrumental methods, analytical and computational methods, and questionnaires were used. Results. High social innovation and passenger flow dynamics typical for a suburban-urban route were identified. Significant unevenness in load across routes and times of day was revealed, confirmed by a high unevenness coefficient (2.75). Current capacity utilization rates (coefficient ~0.41) were found to indicate potential for optimizing rolling stock distribution. Key issues were confirmed through questionnaires: comfort and schedule delays, which can be regulated under a gross contract. Practical implications. The study's results can be used to support transport management in commercial agglomerations to justify the transition of suburban and standard routes to gross contracts. A study of electronic tools for improving quality of life, reducing social isolation, improving the environment, and managing population mobility through transport service reform.