The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on the Motorization Process: Analysis and Forecast

The article examines the relationship between public policy and the motorization process. The set of public policy measures aimed at the production of automobiles and the demand for them, as well as the objectives of these measures, are systematized. The analysis shows that some of the possible goals are not postulated when forming policy. At the same time, the absence of such goals as balanced reproduction of the passenger car fleet, improvement of its age structure, etc. implies a number of negative consequences for society and the state. The impact of retrospective and current monetary policy on the motorization process is analyzed and the risks associated with it are described. The volume of car sales is estimated in three scenarios: a scenario in which the current policy is maintained, as well as hypothetical scenarios whose target settings are the stable reproduction of the passenger car fleet. It has been shown that tightening fiscal policy (increasing the recycling fee) in 2024–2025 and monetary policy (increasing the key rate) in 2024 will result in sales being 10.2 million units lower than those required for balanced production, cumulatively, over the period from 2025 to 2035.