Forecasting transport demand to improve railway transport efficiency

The activity of railway transport directly depends on the socio-economic situation in the country. Currently, an important task of Russian Railways is to carry out passenger transportation in full with the involvement of passenger traffic, increase competitiveness in the transport market, and provide the necessary quantities of mobile units and infrastructure. Therefore, the forecast of passenger demand formation is one of the main guidelines for the railway complex and the development of the economy of the whole country. The demand for passenger transportation depends on various socio-economic factors, which in turn depend on macroeconomic indicators. In the structure of transportation volume in the Russian Federation, the share of passengers transported by rail is 48.1 %, which leads to increased demand and the need to update the car fleet. In order to meet the needs of the population for rail transportation and assess the availability of infrastructure, it is necessary to predict the demand for transportation along all train routes. The article discusses the issues of forecasting passenger transportation. The factors influencing the formation of passenger traffic in railway transport are analyzed. Methods of forecasting demand are proposed. Conclusions are drawn about the impact of demand forecasting on the efficiency of railway transport enterprises.