Agricultural policy and Russia’s grain exports: strategic reorientation in the context of foreign economic restrictions

The relevance of this study stems from the need to assess the effectiveness of Russia’s agricultural policy in the context of radically changing foreign economic conditions after 2022. The objective of the study is to comprehensively analyze structural changes in the geographic and commodity structure of grain exports in order to develop recommendations for their further adaptation. The methodology is based on a comparative analysis of dynamic data series for the period 2014-2024. The obtained results indicate a significant transformation of export flows. Over six years, the number of importing countries decreased from 102 in 2018 to 49 in 2024, while the value of exports remained at USD 11.3 billion in 2024. The commodity structure revealed a sharp concentration on wheat, whose share reached a record 84.6%, and the geo-graphic structure revealed a critical dependence on a key partner, Egypt, which accounted for 27,1% of total exports. At the same time, supplies to a number of previously significant markets were almost completely disrupted. The identified concentration, both by product and geography, creates systemic risks to the sustainability of export revenues and requires immediate strategic adjustments. Based on the analysis, specific recommendations are provided for adjusting agri-cultural and foreign economic policies aimed at diversifying export flows and mitigating strategic risks.