Beyond renewable expansion: Evaluating macroeconomic models for degrowth pathways on the energy transition

This study examines degrowth pathways as an alternative socio-economic approach that challenges the assumption that continuous economic growth is a prerequisite for human well-being and environmental sustainability. The central question is whether an intentional reduction in production and consumption could be compatible with a sustainable and equitable society. However, despite rising academic interest, quantitative tools to assess degrowth remain limited. To address this gap, this study compares three macroeconomic models based on different modelling typologies: International Futures (IFs), LowGrow SFC, and EUROGREEN. Each model’s structure, assumptions, and capacity to simulate degrowth-oriented policies were analysed in the context of the energy sector and energy transition. In IFs, a tailored degrowth scenario was created by adjusting 60 parameters obtained from the degrowth literature. In LowGrow SFC, a smaller but highly specific set of parameters was modified through its interactive interface. EUROGREEN directly enabled degrowth simulations via predefined policy packages, emphasizing sufficiency, redistribution, and behavioural change. The analysis shows that the models capture degrowth in distinct ways, reflecting their structural foundations. While IFs struggle with conceptual coherence, LowGrow SFC offers a consistent post-growth framework, and EUROGREEN aligns most closely with degrowth principles. Across models, degrowth scenarios consistently reduced CO 2 emissions to meet climate targets. The results suggest that abandoning a growth-oriented paradigm can support both social well-being and the energy transition, provided it is accompanied by robust redistributive and labour policies.