Mobile Broadband and Its Impact on the Economy: Evidence from Zimbabwe

Mobile broadband is the dominant pathway to internet access in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet its macroeconomic effects remain understudied at the country level in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides, to our knowledge, the first Zimbabwe-specific quarterly time series assessment (2012–2024) of the relationship between mobile broadband adoption and economic performance. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimated in an Error Correction Model (ECM) representation, the researchers distinguish short-run dynamics from long-run relationships while disaggregating mobile broadband from fixed broadband indicators and controlling for financial depth (market capitalisation), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, and an innovation capacity index. The researchers document a stable long-run relationship between GDP per capita and the digital–macroeconomic system, evidenced by a statistically significant and negative error correction term (−3.14, p < 0.05), implying rapid convergence aftershocks. In the short run, increases in mobile penetration exert positive and persistent effects on GDP growth over one to three quarters, consistent with a diffusion and learning mechanism as households and firms integrate connectivity into production, market access, and digital financial services. By contrast, total internet subscriptions are positively related to GDP in the long run but exhibit a negative contemporaneous effect, suggestive of onboarding frictions; fixed broadband adoption shows weak short-run effects, whereas fixed network revenues correlate positively with near-term activity. Long-run income dynamics remain anchored in structural fundamentals—capital market depth (positive), with fixed broadband and innovation exhibiting negative coefficients under current market conditions. Policy implications include accelerating mobile adoption (spectrum and power reliability, device affordability, rural connectivity, and digital skills) to capture near-term gains, alongside macroeconomic stabilisation, productive FDI, and capital market deepening to consolidate long-run digital dividends.