Global Market Shocks and Food Riots: The Impact of Energy Prices, Biofuels, and Financial Speculation in Africa

Even though the existing literature has elucidated the domestic causes of riots and the links between global food prices and riots, the relationship between riots and various external factors, such as biofuel production, global crude oil prices, speculation, and the US dollar exchange rate, has yet to be fully analyzed. This study aimed to fill this research gap by examining the associations of these external factors on the occurrence of riots in Africa using the Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. Our key findings are as follows: (1) U.S. ethanol production and international crude oil prices are positively associated with riot frequency, whereas U.S. biodiesel production is not statistically significant. (2) A higher long share relative to open interest increases riot incidence, while a higher short share reduces it. (3) Both international food prices and African domestic food prices exhibit positive and statistically significant associations with riots. (4) Appreciation of the U.S. dollar is negatively correlated with food riots. Overall, the findings suggest that global energy, financial, monetary, and food price dynamics are systematically linked to food riots in Africa.