Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Species Distribution in Ethiopia: A Synthesis Review

Ethiopia’s diverse topography and associated climate enabled the country to support a wide range of forest ecosystems, making it a global biodiversity hotspot. These forests provide enormous ecological, economic, and social services, including carbon sequestration, water regulation, soil protection, and livelihood support at both local and global scales. However, climate change, manifesting as rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and increased frequency of extreme events, is driving substantial shifts in forest species distributions, abundance, and diversity. This synthesis review examines empirical and modelling studies conducted in Ethiopia from 2000 to 2025, focusing on the climate-induced range shifts, altitudinal migrations, and habitat contraction or expansion across major vegetation types, including Afroalpine and Ericaceous belts, Moist and Dry Evergreen Afromontane forests, Acacia–Commiphora woodlands, and dry lowland bushlands. The findings indicate that cold and moisture-dependent montane species are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These effects are manifested by upslope range shifts, habitat fragmentation, and reduced abundance in most species, while some drought-tolerant and generalist species expand their ranges. Such changes alter species richness, evenness, and forest community composition, threatening endemic taxa, ecosystem resilience, and the provision of essential ecosystem services. The review further revealed that the effects of climate change are spatially heterogeneous and species-specific, emphasising the need for species-specific climate-smart conservation strategies. Overall, the evidence underlines the urgency of taking action to protect Ethiopia’s forest biodiversity and to sustain ecosystem services under ongoing and future climate change.