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Localized climate evidence for agricultural risk assessment remains scarce in northern Ethiopia. This study integrates long-term station observations with CHIRPS v3 and ERA5 to extend climate analysis in Tigray to 2024 and to link sub-regional rainfall and temperature variability directly to agricultural risk. Data from six meteorological stations in south Tigray were combined with high-resolution gridded rainfall and temperature datasets. Long-term seasonal and annual trends and variability in rainfall and temperature were assessed using standard non-parametric trend and rainfall variability analysis methods. Rainfall anomalies identified severe dry years (1984, 2002, 2015, 2022) and wet years (1998, 2006, 2010), highlighting pronounced interannual variability. Regional aggregates revealed statistically significant warming across Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean, with Sen’s slopes ranging from + 0.018 to + 0.046 °C yr⁻¹. Warming was strongest in Tmin, implying reduced night-time cooling and narrowing diurnal ranges. Between 1981 and 2008, temperatures rose steadily, briefly cooled during 2009–2011, then accelerated markedly through the 2010–2020s. Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) results suggested increasing intra-annual rainfall concentration in some areas, with more rain concentrated in fewer events. Overall, the results indicate clear warming trends with spatially and temporally variable rainfall changes, carrying important implications for rain-fed agriculture. Improved observational networks, combined with downscaled projections, and expanded use of agro-climatic metrics, are critical for robust climate risk assessment and adaptation planning.