Hierarchical sequencing of resilience capabilities: a complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis of Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas supply chain

Purpose The supply chain resilience (SCR) literature has largely conceptualised governance, technology and collaboration as parallel, independently deployable capabilities. This study aims to re-examines that assumption by investigating how resilience capabilities are hierarchically sequenced in supply chains (SCs). Focusing on the downstream oil and gas SC in Nigeria, the study enriches debates on the design and coordination of SCR capabilities. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, this study adopts a qualitative research design. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key SC actors, including refinery operators, distributors and regulators, and were analysed thematically to examine how governance, technology and collaboration interact under conditions of institutional voids. Findings The findings reveal that SCR capabilities do not operate in parallel. Instead, resilience emerges through a hierarchical sequence in which macro-level governance stability enables meso-level technology adoption, which, in turn, facilitates micro-level collaboration. Resilience is therefore produced through bricolage that combines formal institutional arrangements with grassroots improvisation. Practical implications For SC managers and policymakers operating in volatile environments, the findings promote prioritising governance stability before advanced digital investments and recognising informal coordination mechanisms as foundational components of resilience. Originality/value This study conceptualises governance, technology and collaboration as an emergent, sequentially interdependent system of capabilities shaped by institutional constraints. By integrating CAS theory into SCR research, this approach extends the dominant parallel-capability perspective and offers new insights into how resilience develops in fragile and regulated SCs.