Geopolitical Power Shifts and Global Trade Dynamics

Global trade is being redefined by escalating geopolitical rivalries, economic nationalism, and the erosion of multilateral institutions. This chapter examines how established powers and emerging blocs are navigating an increasingly fragmented trade order marked by conflict-driven disruptions and realignment of alliances. Grounded in the Geopolitical Trade Realignment Framework (GTRF) and Realist Institutionalism, it analyzes how wars, protectionist policies, and the rise of BRICS, de-dollarization, and regional trade partnerships such as RCEP, AfCFTA, and CPTPP are transforming global commerce. Events like the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and South Asian tensions illustrate how power politics are reshaping supply chains and trade architectures. The study reveals a decisive shift toward regionalism, resilience, and sovereignty-based trade strategies, offering critical insights for policymakers, scholars, and professionals seeking to navigate an evolving multipolar economic landscape.