Shifting Currents: Unraveling the Dynamic Dance Between Climate Policy Uncertainty and Energy Market Volatility

ABSTRACT Leveraging the innovative 𝑅2 decomposed linkage method, our study delves into the complex and reciprocal relationship between monthly energy fluctuations and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) indicators. Spanning from January 2017 to December 2023, this analysis highlights both immediate and delayed interactions between these factors. We find that clean and solar energy markets predominantly shaped climate uncertainty from Q3 2018 to late 2020, particularly during the early stages of the climate uncertainty‐solar energy connection. In contrast, from Q4 2022 onward, climate uncertainty emerged as the dominant force influencing clean/solar energy. Additionally, climate uncertainty exerted significant control over crude oil prices throughout 2019 and 2021, before an inversion of this relationship emerged in the latter part of 2022. For natural gas, climate uncertainty maintained dominance from 2021 through Q1 2023, with a notable reversal from Q2 2023 onward.