A Two-Stage Comparative Framework for Predicting Photovoltaic Cleaning Schedules: Modeling and Comparisons Based on Real and Simulated Data

This study develops and validates a two-stage comparative framework for predicting Photovoltaic (PV) cleaning schedules by integrating high-resolution operational data with regression-based simulated datasets generated from statistical models trained on real measurements. The work directly addresses the growing need to assess whether model-based regression-based simulated data can reliably substitute real measurements in predictive PV maintenance. These models are employed to generate clean-condition power baselines and to estimate daily energy losses attributable to soiling under two distinct paradigms: (i) using real historical PV performance and environmental measurements, and (ii) using regression-derived, regression-based simulated data representing idealized clean operating conditions. Model performance is rigorously quantified using correlation coefficients (R), coefficients of determination (R2), mean absolute deviations, and binary classification metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The comprehensive results demonstrate that regression-based simulated datasets exhibit high fidelity with real measurements across key electrical variables. This is evident for datasets generated using PLSR, Ridge Regression, and Robust Regression. Strong correlations are observed for DC power (R2 = 0.9545) and DC current (R2 = 0.9520), with mean deviations consistently below 2.2%. When a threshold-based binary decision rule (“clean” versus “do not clean”) is applied, cleaning decisions derived from simulated and real datasets show near-perfect concordance, achieving a mean F1-score of 0.9792. These results indicate that for a fixed performance-loss threshold, models using regression-based simulated data reproduce real-data-based cleaning triggers with an accuracy exceeding 97%. Furthermore, the findings confirm that regression-based simulation frameworks constitute a reliable and scalable foundation for data-driven PV maintenance optimization. By enabling efficient cleaning scheduling, these frameworks can significantly reduce operational expenditure and maximize energy yield, particularly in regions where continuous, high-quality PV monitoring data are limited or difficult to obtain.