Added Value for Urban Heat Island Quantification from Machine Learning Downscaling of Air Temperatures

The urban heat island effect is well recognized and has been quantified using ground observations within and outside urban areas. Earth Observation has further revealed small-scale local spatial differences, especially in urban surface temperatures, that have been shown to be highly correlated with differences in the urban fabric. However, surface temperatures do not directly translate to human-experienced temperatures, and hence high-resolution air temperature data is of high relevance. However, air temperature is not easily measured from space, and seldom do ground measurements allow for small-scale differences to be quantified to a satisfactory degree. In the present study, we assessed the added value of an air temperature product downscaled using machine learning compared to the high-resolution reanalysis model that formed its foundation. The downscaled product was developed using satellite data, local observations from privately owned weather stations, and high-resolution reanalysis. The comparison focused on Denmark’s four largest urban areas and examined the two data product’s ability to describe the urban heat island effect at the city scale as well as intra-city differences in air temperatures. Both data products show similar urban heat island effects at the city scale, while the downscaled product shows greater intra-city variance in air temperature, with patterns that are somewhat correlated with both urban density and urban green spaces. Generally, the downscaling product offers city planners a better data basis for evaluating where to prioritize contingency and mitigation measures within the urban space.