Forecasting and Policy Optimization for the Enrollment of State University in Bulacan: A System Dynamics Approach

This study develops a system dynamics model to support enrollment forecasting and policy optimization for a State University in Bulacan. State universities and colleges increasingly face fluctuating demand, resource constraints, and policy shifts, yet decisions on admission quotas and capacity are often reactive and based on fragmented analyses. Using five years of historical data on applicants, qualifiers, new enrollees, program-level enrollment, and student retention, dropout, and graduation, the study constructs causal loop and stock-and-flow diagrams that capture key feedbacks between demand, institutional capacity, and student success. The model will be calibrated and validated against historical trends, then used as a “flight simulator” to test alternative admission and capacity policies, such as changes in grade cutoffs, expansion of high-demand programs, or improvements in retention. Scenario results will provide multi-year enrollment projections by college and reveal leverage points where targeted interventions can stabilize growth, prevent capacity overload, and align enrollment with strategic objectives and budget constraints. By integrating forecasting and policy analysis in a single dynamic framework, the study aims to offer state universities a practical decision-support tool for evidence-based enrollment management. More broadly, the framework can be adapted by other regional higher education institutions confronting similar uncertainties in student demand and capacity elsewhere.