Urban survival, population dynamics and historical transitions in Thessaloniki (316 BC-AD 1500)

Cities have historically endured profound challenges while sustaining their populations through adaptive structures and functions. Understanding contemporary urbanization requires situating it within these long-term historical trajectories. This study examines the demographic consequences of historical transitions in Thessaloniki over 1,800 years, based on 846 individuals recovered from peri-urban and intramural cemeteries. Survival analysis was applied to assess mortality risk and life expectancy across six periods: Hellenistic (323–31 BC), Roman (31 BC–AD 324), Early Byzantine (AD 324–842), Middle Byzantine (AD 842–1204), Late Byzantine (AD 1204–1430), and Post-Byzantine (AD 1430–c. 1600). The results demonstrate that from the Hellenistic through the Byzantine periods, mean survival remained largely stable, with no statistically significant fluctuations. In contrast, a pronounced decline in survival was observed during the early Post-Byzantine period, attributable to a succession of catastrophic events between AD 1422 and 1430, including a plague epidemic, an extended siege, and the city’s eventual conquest by the Ottomans. No significant differences in survival were identified between males and females, nor between individuals buried in different cemetery locations, indicating a relatively uniform distribution of urban mortality risks. By reconstructing demographic patterns across an extended temporal framework, this study highlights the interplay of biological and historical forces in shaping urban experience in Thessaloniki across nearly two millennia.