Energy transitions in peripheral territories: integrating Multi-level Perspective and Three Horizons approaches in Chilean Patagonia

Energy transitions in peripheral territories face unique challenges requiring place-based frameworks that integrate local knowledge with analytical rigor. This research examines energy transition dynamics in Chile’s Aysén region through an integrated methodology combining Multi-level Perspective analysis with Three Horizons participatory visioning, advancing a novel theoretical-methodological framework for sustainability science. Using directed content analysis of 96 documents and Three Horizons during a three-round Delphi study with 54 regional stakeholders, this study characterized the current socio-technical regime, examined transformation imperatives, and co-created locally grounded visions of sustainable energy futures. Findings reveal a socio-technical regime characterized by institutional concentration, geographic isolation, and resistance to technological change, dominated by diesel dependency and firewood use despite environmental consequences. The methodological integration uncovered a capacity recognition paradox where existing local capabilities remain invisible within formal planning frameworks designed for core regions, while stakeholders demonstrated sophisticated understanding of transition pathways, envisioning Aysén as a regional energy laboratory emphasizing distributed solutions and community energy autonomy. This integrated Multi-level Perspective-Three Horizons approach addresses fundamental limitations in energy transition theory by revealing how peripheralization operates through both material and epistemic marginalization. The framework transcends centralized versus distributed energy development debates, demonstrating how peripheral territories can serve as laboratories for alternative development pathways. This research contributes to sustainability science methodology by showing how place-based approaches can bridge analytical rigor with participatory knowledge production while uncovering transformative potential invisible within top-down planning frameworks, with implications for energy transition research in marginalized contexts globally.