Pathways to Decarbonizing Land Transport in Saudi Arabia: An integrated assessment of technologies and policy interventions

• Study quantifies emission pathways, showing current policies slowed growth in transport CO₂. • Combined measures like transit expansion and electrification can have a significant emission reduction. • Ambition+ shows integrated policies can cut transport emissions by nearly 80% by 2060. • Deep decarbonization requires sequenced, integrated policies, not isolated interventions. This study systematically evaluates pathways to decarbonize Saudi Arabia’s land transport sector by 2060, employing scenario-based modeling to quantify the impacts of various policy interventions. Using GCAM-KSA, an integrated assessment model including Saudi Arabia as a separate region, four distinct scenarios focusing on the direct tailpipe emissions are analyzed to illustrate the spectrum of possible outcomes based on differing levels of policy ambition. The findings indicate that existing initiatives, as shown in the Baseline scenario, have reduced land-transport emissions by about 15% by 2025 and are expected to decrease by 35% by 2060 compared to the No Policy scenario. However, additional efforts are needed for deep decarbonization of the land transport sector, necessitating more aggressive and integrated strategies. The Ambition+ scenario highlights an achievable route to deep decarbonization, showcasing an 80% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2060 through comprehensive measures including expanded public transport, rapid deployment of clean vehicle technologies, and vehicle scrappage policies. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations emphasizing infrastructure development, technological innovation, and stakeholder engagement as essential elements for achieving sustainable mobility in alignment with Saudi Arabia’s broader climate commitments. By situating these findings within global and regional net-zero goals, the study offers lessons beyond Saudi Arabia. Many car-dependent economies face similar decarbonization challenges, and the integrated pathways presented here provide transferable strategies.