Risk-Oriented Evaluation of Yield Stability and Genotype × Year Interaction in Triticale Under Interannual Climatic Variability

Climate variability amplifies temporal heterogeneity in crop production, challenging uniform varietal recommendations and highlighting the need to integrate genotype × environment interactions. This study evaluated the yield performance and stability of sixteen triticale (×Triticosecale Wittmack) genotypes over three consecutive growing seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024, 2024/2025) at a single location with pronounced interannual climatic variability. Grain yield ranged from 3.49 to 6.68 t/ha in the least productive season (2022/2023) and from 7.71 to 9.92 t/ha in the most favorable season (2024/2025), with overall genotype means varying between 6.67 and 8.12 t/ha. Stability was assessed using regression-based parameters (regression coefficient and variance of deviations from regression), Shukla’s stability variance, and derived indices describing responsiveness (RI), predictability (PI), genetic risk (GRI), stress robustness (SRI), and yield opportunity (YOI). Results revealed substantial genotype × year interaction, with yield strongly dependent on seasonal conditions. Four genotypes combined high mean yield with stable performance and low interaction-related risk, indicating broad adaptability across years. Another four exhibited strong responsiveness to favorable seasons or elevated instability, increasing production risk despite high yield potential. The derived indices enabled risk-oriented genotype profiling, identifying contrasting adaptation strategies. Multivariate AMMI and GGE biplot analyses confirmed these patterns, providing a comprehensive view of interaction structure and stability. This integrated framework translates stability metrics into practical, decision-oriented descriptors, supporting risk-aware genotype selection under variable climates.