CYBER PRESSURE, THE PDVSA INCIDENT, AND THE CAPTURE OF NICOLÁS MADURO: AN OPEN-SOURCE ASSESSMENT

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 was preceded by a series of non‑kinetic events that reshaped the operational environment in Venezuela. Among these, a cyber incident affecting Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) in December 2025 stands out as a relevant case of cyber pressure applied against critical infrastructure in the theater of operations. This article analyzes the PDVSA cyber incident using open‑source information to assess its characteristics, documented impacts, and strategic relevance as contextual cyber pressure preceding a limited regime intervention. Rather than asserting direct causality between the PDVSA incident and the subsequent capture operation, the article situates the incident within broader discussions on cyber‑enabled coercion, infrastructure vulnerability, and ambiguity in attribution. The study contributes an empirically grounded case analysis to the emerging literature on cyber operations as shaping mechanisms in contemporary conflict.