Estimated suitability distribution for <i>Culicoides (Haematomyidium) paraensis</i> (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in the contiguous United States and associated Caribbean territories

The distribution of Culicoides paraensis, the primary reported vector for Oropouche virus (OROV), is poorly defined in the Caribbean and Contiguous United States (CONUS). These areas experienced a dramatic range expansion of the virus (Caribbean) or reported travel-associated human cases (CONUS) of OROV in recent years. Using a recently compiled collection of county-level presence reports of C. paraensis throughout CONUS, we fitted ecological niche models to estimate a conservative county-level distribution of C. paraensis in CONUS and the US Caribbean territories (Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands). We estimated high suitability across the southeastern United States with moderate suitability extending north to the Great Lakes and along the Atlantic coast. The western United States and Caribbean territories were estimated with low suitability. However, dramatic differences in environmental conditions in these areas relative to counties with reported collections limit our confidence in these estimates. While further surveillance is needed to refine these estimates, our risk maps provide an initial county-level estimate of suitability along with uncertainty.