Thinning partially offsets climate change-induced decline of Pinus koraiensis volume in broadleaf-Korean pine mixed forest in Northeast China based on transition matrix growth model simulations

• A climate-sensitive matrix model simulated broadleaf-Korean pine mixed forests. • Simulations assessed forest responses to climate change and management. • Conifer decline and broadleaf increase under future climate change. • Thinning could offset climate-induced stock volume loss of Korean pine. • Thinning from below with 10% intensity helped sustain Korean pine under mild warming. Climate change threatens the habitat quality of Korean pine ( Pinus koraiensis ) and may induce profound structural and functional shifts in broadleaf-Korean pine mixed forests (BKF) in Northeast Asia. This study used a climate-sensitive transition matrix growth model to evaluate the impacts of seven forest management scenarios and four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and constant scenario) for BKF in northeastern China. Results showed pronounced differences in Korean pine (Pk) proportion across climate scenarios under the no-cutting (NC) scenario. By 2100, the Pk proportion was 18.8% under the constant climate scenario, whereas it was 4.6%, 3.2%, and 1.6% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. However, comprehensive thinning and lower story thinning with 10% intensity (LST10) nearly doubled the Pk proportion relative to NC under the same climate scenario over 90 years. Management and climate both significantly affected the Pk volume at the end of the simulation ( P < 0.05), but no significant interaction was found. LST10 offset climate-induced Pk volume loss by 30.3% under SSP1-2.6 and 19.6% under SSP2-4.5 compared to the NC, but the offset was negligible under SSP5-8.5. Across all climate scenarios, Korean pine volume under LST10 was on average 22.7 m 3 ·ha −1 higher than that under NC. Overall, forest management exerted a stronger effect than climate change on stand basal area and total stand volume. These findings underscore the benefits of thinning strategies for sustaining Korean pine forests and provide a reference for climate-smart forest management.