Influencing factors of prognosis in HIV infected individuals undergoing surgical treatment for colorectal cancer

Objective This study aimed to identify potential independent predictors of 1-year postoperative overall survival (OS) in people living with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) who had undergone curative resection for colorectal cancer (CRC), and to construct a predictive model as an initial risk stratification tool. Methods A total of 54 HIV-infected patients who underwent radical resection for CRC at the Fourth People’s Hospital of Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from January 2020 to December 2024 were enrolled. Their demographic data, pathological characteristics, and preoperative serological test indicators were collected. COX regression analyses were performed to identify potential independent factors affecting prognosis. A nomogram model predicting 1-year OS was subsequently constructed and internally validated. Results BMI, interval time from HIV diagnosis to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, CA19-9, CA125, and BASO% were potential independent prognostic factors for 1-year postoperative OS in HIV-infected patients with CRC. The nomogram constructed based on these variables exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.935, and the optimism value from bootstrap internal validation was 0.005. Conclusion The nomogram derived from the identified potential independent factors demonstrated acceptable discriminative ability in internal validation and could serve as a visual preliminary risk stratification tool for 1-year prognosis in HIV-infected patients after curative CRC surgery.