How Does Population Aging Affect Farmland Abandonment? An Inverted U‐Shaped Relationship From the Large‐Scale Survey Data in China

ABSTRACT Population aging has always been considered a driving force for farmland abandonment, which aggravates global food insecurity. However, using big survey data from 11,750 rural households across China, an inverted U‐shaped change was found regarding the relationship between them with the extreme point of aging rate around 27%. Before the aging rate reaches its extreme point, it positively promoted the abandonment of arable land. After this point, the aging rate suppressed the occurrence of it. In addition, the mediation effect between them was revealed. The proportion of household agricultural income played a partial mediating role between population aging and farmland abandonment, and the proportion of mediating effect accounted for 28.5% after Sobel test. Heterogeneity of this influence at the individual, household, and village levels was also uncovered. At the individual level, the inverted U‐shaped effect of aging on farmland abandonment is significant in the male group or farmers below junior high school education, but not significant in the female group or farmers above junior high school education. At the household level, the inverted U‐shaped impact is very significant in households with agricultural subsidies or impoverished households, but not significant in households without agricultural subsidies or households with general income. At the level of the village, the inverted U‐shaped impact is very significant among villages located in mountainous areas or villages far away from large or medium‐sized cities. This study initializes a more comprehensive perspective encompassing the complexity of the real scenario, which contributes to better management of rural aging and agricultural sustainable development.