Future meteorological droughts and local adaptation in the social-ecological participatory observatory Mapimí in arid northern Mexico

Abstract Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural phenomenon throughout Mexican history and it has had severe and long-lasting impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, such impacts have been studied primarily from a meteorological perspective, with limited research on their effects on society. This study examines drought perception concept in the Mapimí Social–Ecological Participatory Observatory (OPSE by acronym in Spanish) by integrating drought analysis with community-based knowledge to frame drought as a coproduced socio-climatic phenomenon. We characterized historical (1981–2010) and projected (2041–2100) drought conditions using indicators based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from the observational dataset CHIRPS and climate simulations from CanRCM4 under the RCP 8.5 scenario, and combined these analyses with semi-structured interviews conducted with local residents. Our results show that while recent decades experienced severe and persistent droughts, future projections suggest that the frequency of severe and extreme drought events calculated at a 12 months’ time scale may not intensify in OPSE Mapimí. Community perceptions of drought are primarily grounded in livelihood impacts particularly water scarcity and forage availability—rather than in formal meteorological thresholds. The correspondence between SPI-based drought events and locally recalled drought years highlights the social salience of extreme events, while uneven awareness and preparedness reveal persistent informational and institutional gaps. By situating hydroclimatic assessments within a participatory observatory framework, this study demonstrates how drought risk is coproduced through interactions among climate variability and social meaning-making processes. The findings underscore the importance of place-based, socially grounded drought diagnostics for effective risk governance in dryland regions.