Is China an Opportunity for Industrialization in African Countries?

Abstract Since the dawn of the 21st century, China's global influence has been steadily increasing, with significant implications for emerging and developing nations. This paper examines the impact of trade with China on the manufacturing sector across 53 African countries, while also considering the experiences of other developing nations, including 78 emerging economies and 20 low-income economies, over the period from 1995 to 2021. The findings indicate that trade with China contributes to deindustrialization in Africa, from both aggregate exports and imports. While imports from China also lead to deindustrialization in other developing countries, exports to China have facilitated industrialization in other low-income nations. Notably, there is no evidence to suggest that trade with China influences the industrialization process in emerging economies. Therefore, our results highlight Africa as a unique case regarding the impact of exports to China compared with other developing countries, underscoring the continent's heavy reliance on commodity exports to China.