Predicting the Habitat Suitability for Quercus mongolica Restoration Species Using an Ensemble Species Distribution Model

Identifying suitable habitats for ecosystem restoration is critical for conserving globally threatened biodiversity. Baseline data on the distribution and range of biogenic habitat-forming species at high spatial resolution are essential for informing habitat management strategies and preserving ecosystem integrity. We identified suitable sites for habitat restoration by integrating community ecological data for Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Turcz., a valuable restoration tree species, with insights from ensemble modeling. Habitat suitability was predicted using an ensemble species distribution model. A total of 89 occurrence records and nine environmental variables were used to develop the single algorithm models. Model performance was assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Future habitat suitability was evaluated using projected climate change scenarios. Under more extreme climate change scenarios, the future suitable habitat of Q. mongolica is projected to gradually contract toward the high-altitude areas of Mt. Gariwang. The primary environmental variable is elevation, and rising temperatures due to climate change negatively impact habitat suitability for Q. mongolica. Therefore, adaptation measures must be established to mitigate these impacts, such as protecting the reference ecosystems of Q. mongolica. This integrated approach offers a nature-based solution for guiding climate change-integrated restoration programs in Mt. Gariwang and globally.