Can public-private partnerships drive transformational climate adaptation? Seafood sector pathways in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract Transformational climate adaptation requires coordinated action across sectors and scales, enabled by governance arrangements that can address systemic barriers. Public-private partnerships (PPP) may provide such a mechanism by aligning incentives, pooling resources and fostering collaboration between government and industry. In this paper, we evaluate a national PPP, The Aotearoa Circle (The Circle), and how it has catalysed climate adaptation in Aotearoa New Zealand’s seafood sector. Commissioned by The Circle, we conducted adaptation pathways planning, a decision-support process that identifies and sequences adaptation strategies and actions to reduce future climate risk, for two fisheries and two aquaculture industries. The process engaged company, government, research and civil society stakeholders to design suites of incremental and transformational strategies to reach long-term industry goals, and actions to implement them. We analysed these outputs to assess the PPP’s relevance in enabling implementation. Amongst the transformational pathways, 48% of actions required collaboration by public and private entities. Strategies were also identified to address systemic adaptation barriers across the sector (agile regulation, climate forecasting, fleet decarbonisation, oceans research). For these, the majortiy of actions required leadership by The Circle or public-private collaborations. Key informant interviews revealed challenges in implementation of immediate actions. While some were underway, shifts in national government policies had resulted in uneven progress amongst the industries. Interviewees emphasised the necessity for The Circle to convene stakeholders and sustain momentum, but resourcing was a constraint. Our results highlight The Circle’s core role in enabling transformational adaptation within industries and across the sector. Yet the PPP remains vulnerable to political cycles, shifting public sector commitment and risk aversion. Strengthening PPP resourcing arrangements is necessary to action long-term adaptation, and to ensure iterative pathways planning.