The Deutschlandticket in the greater Hamburg area: An exploratory analysis of its role in the transport transition

This paper examines Deutschlandticket (DT) ownership rate, demand and modal shift effects and in particular the substitution of car mobility using empirical data, focusing on the Hamburg Transport Association (hvv). It is based on representative surveys conducted monthly in the hvv network area between May 2023 and September 2025 (n = 31,078). We are pursuing a research approach that combines different perspectives to create a holistic picture of the impact of the DT on car traffic. This includes survey data on mode choice (including driver analyses), as well as time series and cross-sectional analyses of mode use, multivariate analyses, and the inclusion of secondary data (passenger counts, nationwide surveys as anchor variables). The results show a significant increase in public transport (PT) use in the hvv in 2025 of 17% (increase in trips compared to the no-change scenario). In 2025, DT use in Hamburg amounts to 52%, which is approximately twice the share observed in the surrounding area (26%). The shift away from car travel – consistently shown in different analytical approaches – is crucial for the transport transition: a significant proportion of all DT journeys (16% in 2025) will replace motorized private transport (MPT). Overall, it is clear that DT leads to a noticeable reduction in car use (-8.8%), with a greater impact in the city than in the surrounding area. The driver for this is that, in the medium term, DT has attracted new subscription customers for local transport on a large scale.