Development of predictive method to analyze residual life of reinforced concrete overhead line supports based on regulations of JSC Russian Railways

AIM: This work aimed to develop a predictive method to analyze the residual life of reinforced concrete overhead line supports integrating predictive modeling in the standards of JSC Russian Railways for the transition from scheduled preventive maintenance to proactive management. METHODS: The study is based on Order No. 1047r of JSC Russian Railways. A two-tier method is proposed; the first stage involves the support health classification based on the standards; the second stage involves the prediction of limit states based on criteria, such as reinforcement corrosion, concrete strength loss, and crack development, using physical and mechanical modeling. RESULTS: We developed a two-level method for predicting the residual life and derived formalized calculation formulas for each of the three key criteria (reinforcement corrosion, concrete strength loss, crack development). They allow to measure the time to the limit state of the structure, which provides a reliable basis for support ranking based on the order of taking out of service for repair or replacement. CONCLUSION: The proposed method provides the basis for integration into predictive maintenance systems and digital infrastructure twins, ensuring the transition to proactive lifecycle management of facilities.