The Long Run Impact of Increased Compulsory Education Age: Evidence from Administrative Data in the Netherlands

Abstract Compulsory schooling ages have been extended in many countries, yet it is uncertain whether findings from earlier reforms still hold under current economic, social and institutional conditions. This paper exploits a quasi-experimental setting in the Netherlands, where the compulsory education age was raised from 17 to 18. Using micro-level administrative data and a difference-in-discontinuities design, we investigate the long-term effects of this policy change on continued education engagement and labor market participation. We find that the reform reduced student dropout, increased graduation rates in both high school and adult education, and raised employment and hourly wages at age 31. These overall effects mask substantial heterogeneity: the high school and labor market impacts are driven by vocational track students, whereas gains in adult education completion are driven by pre-university track students. Our findings highlight the necessity for customized policy interventions tailored to each educational trajectory.