The mediating role of energy consumption in the impact of thermal environment change on carbon emissions: evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, understanding the interactions among thermal environments, energy consumption, and carbon emissions is essential for enhancing urban resilience and achieving dual carbon goals. Existing studies have rarely examined these relationships within a unified analytical framework, limiting insights into the thermal-energy-carbon (TEC) linkages at the regional scale. This study examines the TEC linkage within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) by integrating remote sensing data with econometric modeling approaches. Benchmark regression and robustness checks indicate that changes in surface thermal environment significantly increase regional carbon emissions in the YREB. Further analyses yield three main findings. First, mediation analysis identifies a clear transmission pathway, showing that changes in thermal environment raise overall energy demand, which in turn accounts for approximately 59.20% of the total effect on carbon emissions. Second, threshold regression reveals a double-threshold effect of economic development, indicating that the impact of surface thermal changes on carbon emissions strengthens markedly as regional economic development surpasses specific thresholds. In particular, this effect becomes pronounced in highly developed areas. Third, landscape optimization, especially improved connectivity, is significantly associated with lower carbon emissions and may help alleviate the carbon impacts associated with surface warming. These findings underscore the necessity for policymakers to design differentiated, region-specific carbon reduction strategies that integrate landscape planning and energy efficiency improvements, with particular emphasis on highly developed regions, to more effectively address the challenges of the TEC linkage.