The mis-education of women in Afghanistan: from wage premiums to economic losses

Abstract This study examines the private monetary rate of return to schooling in Afghanistan. We use two novel datasets—a series of nationally representative household surveys (2007, 2014, 2020) and administrative data on public employees in 2018—and apply OLS, Heckman selection correction, and instrumental-variables estimation to measure returns to education. We find that one additional year of schooling, on average, is associated with a 3 to 7 percent increase in monthly income for wage earners, with higher returns for women. The schooling premium extends beyond the public sector into the broader labor market, where the gender pay gap is noticeable. We show that bans on women’s employment and schooling can translate into substantial income losses at both individual and national levels. These findings contribute to the literature on the economics of education in conflict-affected settings and underscore the role of sustained human capital investment.