Assessment of Flood-Prone Areas in the Lacramarca River Basin in the Santa Clemencia and Pampadura Region, Peru, Under Climate Change Effects

Floods are among the extreme events associated with climate variability in the Lacramarca River basin, located in the department of Ancash, Peru. Meteorological phenomena such as El Niño during the periods 1982–1983 and 1997–1998, as well as the Coastal El Niño in 2017, constitute key reference events that motivated the development of the present study, based on a case study conducted in the area between the rural settlements of Santa Clemencia and Pampadura. This research is based on maximum precipitation data derived from historical climate records and from the climate scenarios ACCESS 1-3, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR, as well as the median projected scenario for 2050, obtained from the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI) data platform. This information was analyzed considering the spatial location of the basin and its position relative to the area of interest, using Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. To demonstrate the changes in the river hydrological behavior before and after the 2017 Coastal El Niño event, a Random Forest modeling approach was applied using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Design peak discharges for return periods of 50, 100, and 140 years were estimated using the HEC-HMS software. Hydraulic simulation of the Lacramarca River basin, carried out using HEC-RAS version 6.7 beta 3 and IBER version 3.3.1 software, made it possible to identify flood-prone areas affecting agricultural land and areas adjacent to population centers, covering 149,000 m2 and 172,000 m2 for return periods of 100 and 140 years, respectively, based on information from the historical scenario. In contrast, using data from the 2050 projection scenario, affected areas of 242,000 m2 and 323,000 m2 were estimated for the same return periods.