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In low-speed impact scenarios, the initiation of mechanical fuzes heavily depends on the reaction force generated during projectile impact, where the projectile penetration resistance plays a critical role in determining the reliability of initiation and damage accuracy. To address the challenges in accurately predicting projectile resistance during penetration into water-bearing soil, a simplified calculation model is developed by integrating theoretical derivation, numerical simulation, and experimental verification. The model explicitly considers the coupling effects of incident velocity, impact angle, and soil moisture content. Numerical simulations of projectile penetration into water-bearing soil under different incident velocities and angles reveal that, with a fixed impact angle, the overload peak increases as the incident velocity rises. Moreover, for a constant incident velocity, the timing of the overload peak is advanced with increasing impact angle, and the maximum resistance is positively correlated with the projectile diameter. Experimental results confirm that the error between the model predictions and the measured data is within 10%, indicating high reliability and applicability. In addition, this study synchronously investigates the vibration response characteristics during the penetration process, revealing the intrinsic coupling mechanism between vibration, resistance evolution, and transient overload as well as the multi-frequency and time-frequency characteristics of vibration. This research provides valuable support for the design of mechanical fuzes based on reaction force triggering mechanisms and the evaluation of projectile damage effects in impact vibration scenarios, and also offers reliable theoretical and experimental basis for the optimization of weapon systems and their mechanical performance under dynamic conditions.