Solar activity, galactic cosmic rays and seismicity of the Racha-Dzhava zone of the Greater Caucasus

The work presents a correlation analysis of the dependence of the level of seismic activity of the Racha-Java zone, located in the Central segment of the Greater Caucasus, and the intensity of galactic cosmic rays according to the neutron monitor. A total of 2,827 seismic events from 1997 to 2023 were processed, which corresponds to 23-25 solar activity cycles. The choice of this interval is related to the fact that almost all seismic activity in this zone is associated with the discharge of stresses that arose after one of the strongest earthquakes in the Caucasus, the Racha earthquake, which occurred on April 29, 1991 (Ms=7.0). As a preliminary analysis, it is shown that the intensity of galactic cosmic rays, measured by the counting rate of the neutron monitor in Novosibirsk, is modulated by the level of solar activity, and forms a high, in absolute terms, negative correlation r =-0.89 with a delay of about four months. At the same time, the level of seismic energy output over the specified time interval forms a significant positive correlation r =0.48 with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays with a delay of about one month. Thus, the maximum output of seismic energy from “prepared” earthquakes in one consolidated zone occurs at the minimum of solar activity with a delay of about 10 months and about half a year from the maximum level of intensity of galactic cosmic rays. The analysis of the correlation functions of all pairs of the studied processes showed the presence of a single extremum point, which indicates the high reliability of this relationship.