Enhancing Climate Resilience in Lao PDR through Integrated Energy, Agriculture, and Water Modelling

This technical brief argues the need for integrated land use and energy and water supply planning for achieving Laos’ Green Growth Strategy’s afforestation targets and ensuring food security under climate change. By using the CLEWs modelling framework, we show that the least-cost pathway for achieving the afforestation target includes the mechanization of agriculture, with high-input small-scale and commercial-scale farming, respectively covering 52% and 44% of the production of nine main crops by 2055. This increases the pressure on surface water resources (up to 51% increased use per year compared to a baseline scenario) and the need for electricity for irrigation (up by 0.64 TWh in 2055 compared to the baseline scenario), highlighting the need for infrastructure planning and for diversification of primary supply. Emerging and available climate-resilient and rainfed rice varieties can lower overall costs of rice production per unit of area by 17% and water use per unit of area for rice production in the north by 21%, compared to the baseline, by increasing the yields of low-input rainfed rice crops by 114%. The authors acknowledge the financial support from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The authors would like to acknowledge also the funding from UK Aid from the UK Government via the Climate Compatible Growth programme. However, the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.