Do Climate Conditions in Origin Shape Return Migration Intentions? Evidence From West Africans in Germany

ABSTRACT This study examines the role of climate change in shaping return migration intentions among international migrants. Using an original representative survey of over 1000 first‐generation West African migrants in Germany, we correlate variation in climate conditions in respondents' subnational regions of origin in West Africa to their return migration intentions. We also embed a survey experiment to test whether informational cues about future climate disasters in migrants' origin countries affect their desire to return home. We find no evidence that observed climate conditions correlate with return migration intentions, nor that experimentally manipulated climate disaster cues causally affect these intentions. Moreover, we find that differences in migrants' socioeconomic status, education or attachment to their home countries do not moderate the influence of climate conditions on return intentions. By contrast, economic cues in the experiment play a decisive role: migrants are more inclined to return when job prospects in their home country are favourable, whereas having a good job in Germany reduces return intentions. These results suggest that, in this setting, economic motivations are more salient than environmental concerns in shaping return migration intentions.