Acquisitive plants exhibit stronger phenological shifts in response to warming: insights from meta-analysis and long-term monitoring

As climate warming accelerates, shifts in plant phenology are reshaping the functioning and stability of terrestrial ecosystems. While the roles of climatic drivers in shaping phenological responses to warming are well established, the influence of intrinsic plant functional traits remains poorly understood. Here, we combine two complementary approaches through a meta-analysis of 124 field warming experiments and an analysis of long-term phenological monitoring networks (CPON and USA‑NPN) to evaluate phenological responses to warming across a spectrum of resource-use strategies in seasonally cold biomes. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that resource-acquisitive plants, characterized by higher nutrient concentrations and thinner leaves, show significantly stronger phenological responses to experimental warming. This pattern is observed consistently across both leaf-out in spring and senescence in autumn. These results from meta-analysis are further supported by two long-term observational datasets, which also show more pronounced phenological shifts in acquisitive species under long-term warming. Our findings present a trait-climate integration framework that extends beyond conventional environmental drivers, providing a mechanistic foundation to enhance the accuracy of forecasts for plant responses to climate change.